Dean, point regarding the world reserve currency well-taken. I still worry about hyper-inflation, the $787 billion stimulus still scares me as well as the eternal deficits of the Obama Administration. That’s got to have a hyper-inflationary effect. I hope you’re right though.

I guess we won’t have to worry about the Euro taking this place, as it’s probably kaput in the long-term. The Chinese Yuan? I don’t know: China will certainly give the world something to think about but it’s auto-genocidal policy of 1 child per family means that it could very well get old before it gets rich and powerful. Is it possible that the pound sterling can come again to the rescue?

Re: Seriously, you can imagine people on the phone ‘ti tha pi ‘forex’?’

Having spent way too much time in Chicago – that’s exactly what I can imagine…someone is going to have to ‘splain’ it all to these Daley-mentored Chicago-machine politicians. As the president of a company in Chicago told me a while back, “Dean, we in Chicago assume no one coming out of the Daley machine knows anything…we’re just hoping someone else in Washington can explain it to them.”

Unfortunately for us, he wasn’t kidding.

Best Regards,
Dean

Dean,

Consider further that there is little economic incentive like ‘the communist threat’ to motivate involvement in off-continent affairs for other than trade, travel and research reasons. Sure the threat of terrorism is quite real but not the systemic threat communism was. Iran is a much bigger problem to Saudi Arabia than it is to us.

Looking at how the academic / governmental worldview people see things. I don’t think they appreciate what ‘being the world reserve currency’ means, or if they do they don’t understand it as being important really. I think these folk see no problem with the US ‘pulling in its horns’ and, while not taking an overt isolationist view, simply printing money and standing inflation to pay off ‘debt’ in cheaper dollars — because only that will politically allow them to begin the cycle of government-setting-the-agenda anew. Being them, knowing they are not Greece and can print dollars all day if they really want to, and not really being as connected to the importance of overseas trade relations as people actually in business hiring folk and getting the world’s business done..

Seriously, you can imagine people on the phone ‘ti tha pi ‘forex’?’

“Devaluation” is a thing of the past – governments don’t do it anymore…markets do….daily.

The benefits of being the worldwide reserve currency are ENORMOUS. People all over the world are willing to hold US dollars (paper, backed by the full faith and credit of the US Treasury) – nothing more than US IOU’s.

If this changes…we cannot imagine the problems it will cause.

The thing to REALLY watch is the movement AWAY from the dollar as the reserve currency…into Euro’s, Yen, or SDR’s.

The reason I mention this – I’ve been thinking – about 50 years ago the British showed up in Washington pleading poormouth. They had some unimaginable amount of debt coming due, and didn’t have the cash to make the payments. They assumed their erstwhile allies would help them out.

Washington (see how things have changed) balked – instead of the $5 billion the UK needed, Washington promised something like $3 – and the conditions: the US Dollar replaced the Sterling as the world’s reserve currency. It was the end of an era. Most people, myself included until only recently, don’t realize the meeting ever took place.

Now-days, the FOREX markets now control the value of currencies, for the most part free of government control. No central bank has enough foreign reserves to move the market for very long. The FOREX markets dwarf the stock markets in terms of dollars traded per day…and devaluations occur daily.

But watch the public statements of people who want to move away from the US Dollar. There is nothing that would prevent the Chinese doing exactly the same thing to us, that we did to the British 50 years ago…it would just happen differently – and it would begin with statements like, “We need to move to a new reserve currency.”

Sound familiar?

How’s that “Hope and Change” working out for y’all?

Best Regards
Dean

First the ‘great compromise’ will happen that will cap all the expenditures after a great payout down to a ‘sustainable’ level. Politicians of all stripes congratulate themselves for getting spending under control.

Then, to ‘get rid of the unmanageable debt’ there will be some activity (probably ‘poorly checked inflation’ that will devalue the currency so everyone gets paid off with cheaper dollars. Politicians of all stripes congratulate themselves for getting debt under control.

And, no middle class tax! Everything they saved just got cheaper without them having to pay. Shazaam!

It seems we could pay our debt back in 6 years if we canceled every social and federal program and totally focused debt payment, which would be ridiculous, but one can divine the point. Let’s fire the Pentagon, dismantle NASA, and then bring our troops out of those Middle-East tar-pits. If the big corporations want military support, let them contract Wackenhut or Blackwell security. Hey, I can dream, right?

Just think how little most of the ethnic jurisdictions get now on the national level.

Silver lining? I’m trying to think of one. Perhaps in order to just barely survive, the parishes will have to keep almost all of their receipts, kicking back even less to Englewood/NYC/wherever. The OCA is already ahead of the game a little in this regard as all the power is concentrated on the diocesan level. I honestly don’t see how ANY money at all can go to Istanbul, Damascus, Belgrade, Sofia, etc. under this scenario.

In other words, this could cause a real decentralization in power. The only fly in this ointment I see is if the deficits in the GOA keep accumulating as much as they do, then the bigwigs who consistently bail it out will gain even more power over the hierarchy (a bad thing in principle but not such a bad thing in the short run considering the present crop of bishops.)

Will GOA bishops then be so sanguine about the present regime?

http://chrisbanescu.com/blog/2009/07/the-assault-on-american-business/
http://chrisbanescu.com/blog/2010/05/how-to-cripple-the-free-economy/

Parishes are going to suffer, clergy will suffer, Orthodox organizations will suffer and ultimately any Orthodox jurisdiction that does take measures to cut spending and live with less will suffer. If you an a highly paid Orthodox staffer or sinecure administrator you have to wonder about the long term viability of your employment situation.

Make no mistake repressive taxation is going to have an effect on the Church in America. The very policies so many of these progressive Orthodox leaders celebrate are the very policies that will hinder the growth of Orthodoxy in America.

Heck, the EP might even have to fly commercial if things get really bad.

US population data for one (41 million on Foodstamps?)…foreign comparative data (down the right side) for another.

Also, look at the amount of revenue raised by payroll taxes…it’s very close to the amount raised by income taxes.

And the state info (along the left hand side) is also interesting. Everyone always laughs at California…but who knew there are 7 states in even worse shape.

Some interesting stuff….yes, we are in deep trouble.

How’s that “Hope and Change” working out for y’all?

Dean